The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which ended November 30th, although predicted to be above normal, delivered near-normal overall activity but was marked by sharp contrasts, shifting between long quiet stretches and bursts of extreme intensity that produced three Category 5 hurricanes.
Despite a completely inactive climatological peak during late August to early September, there was no direct tropical storm or hurricane landfall for us in Dominica. Tropical storm Jerry was the only storm which passed closest to the north of us on October 9th warranting the issuance of a flood watch, a small craft warning and a high surf advisory. The season saw 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes which fell within NOAA’s predicted ranges.
Hurricane Melissa demonstrated both the basin’s volatility and the growing skill of forecasters. Rapid intensification of systems continues to be observed, and Melissa became one of the strongest landfalls ever observed in the Caribbean, with NHC providing nearly three days of advanced warning of a Category 5 strike on Jamaica and outperforming all model guidance. The year also marked the first operational use of AI-based forecast models, which NOAA leadership credited—alongside NHC expertise for exceptional rapid-intensification forecasting and critical support to Caribbean partners such as the Dominica Met Service, even as storms stayed offshore but still generated indirect impacts such as hazardous sea conditions and increased rainfall activity on Dominica warranting the issuance of marine and flooding advisories. The Met Service will evaluate lessons learned in 2025 and will continue to take the necessary steps to improve our capacity with the required support to build our resilience as a people and as a country.
Preparedness remains critical as we can still experience adverse weather which can cause serious impacts even outside of the official Atlantic hurricane season as we had several weather systems affect Dominica in the past. Community wide readiness, early action, and adaptive response remain the best defense. Continue daily monitoring of official updates from Dominica Meteorological Service. (See below)
