2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

June 1st to November 30th is designated as the official period for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. This year forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting a 45% chance of an above-normal Atlantic Hurricane season. An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of:

·       11 to 17 Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)

·       5 to 9 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph higher)

·       2 to 4 Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

The outlook is based on the expectation of:

·       A weak or non-existent El Nino

·       Near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea  

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes. Therefore, the prediction for weak El Nino conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. Be reminded that the 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

Regardless of the seasonal outlook, it only takes one storm to significantly disrupt your life. The Dominica Meteorological Service continue to advise the public that less focus should be placed on whether the island is under a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning and greater attention must be given to the local hazards of flooding both inland and coastal, landslides and strong winds. All must finalize preparations such as: effecting repairs to compromised buildings that are in use, clear blocked drains and waterways around homes, remove overhanging tree branches, developing a family communications plan, building an emergency supply kit for your home and know where your community shelters are located. It is important to remain vigilant in order to protect yourself and your family. 

Be Prepared!!!