Seasonal Forecast: May-June-July (MJJ) 2024

Date of Issue: May 1st, 2024




The forecast for this MJJ 2024 season


  •   Models are indicating that rainfall accumulations for the May-June-July 2024 season are likely to be above normal to normal (high confidence)

  • An increase in the frequency of wet days and wet spells is anticipated (medium to high confidence). A range of 41 to 80 wet days are expected for the season. There is a medium to high chance of having about three to as many as ten 7-day wet spells. At least one 3-day extremely wet spell is possible. 

  •           A high potential for flash flooding exists for May with extremely higher chances in June and July.  


  •           An increase in the frequency of outdoor disruptions is likely in the coming months as we transition into the wet/ hurricane season which begins officially June 1st and ends November 30th

  •           At least four 7-day dry spells are possible during the season (low to medium confidence).


  •          The Canefield station has been experiencing what is called an Agricultural/ short-term drought-like conditions throughout the ongoing dry season which    ends officially in May. While dry spells are possible during this season, models confidently indicate a reduction in dry conditions during the period.


  •          Regardless, Farmers along the western coast are encouraged to continue using the various irrigation and water harvesting techniques to help minimize   crop and plant loss during dry spells. Continue to monitor and keep updated.


The heat season officially runs from April to October across the region.


  •         Warmer than usual Temperatures are expected to persist through the May-June-July 2024 Season.
  •         There is an 80% probability of having at least 30 heat wave days.
  •         There is moderate potential for heat impacts during the season. The need for cooling and hydration is likely to increase into the season.

What factors are influencing this forecast?

1.    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to cool anomalously and are around 1°C above average. 

Model forecast and guidance: Forecast models indicate further cooling  resulting in ENSO neutral conditions during the May to July 2024 season(70-80% confidence) and La Niña conditions during the August to October 2024 season (60-80% confidence) 

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures Transitioning out of El Niño often results in an increase in rainfall amounts, intensity and frequency in MJJ. La Niña conditions evolving during the peak of the hurricane season often result in an increase in tropical cyclone activities during the second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. 


2.      Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea


Recent observations: Record high temperatures of about 1°C to 2°C above average were observed in much of the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA).  

Expected conditions: Anomalously warm SSTs of 1°C to 2°C (or more) above average are forecast across the Caribbean Sea and the TNA.

Expected impacts: Air temperatures and humidity across the Caribbean tend to be higher when SSTs are warm. This usually results in above-normal seasonal rainfall totals, an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events and increased tropical cyclone activity throughout the Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Note: The level of forecast accuracy and certainty decreases as the time increases. This is inherent to all model projections. Therefore, there is less confidence after 48 hours. Model projections may change significantly daily.