El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Recent observations showed that El Niño continues to weaken and conditions are favourable for La Niña to evolve during the up-coming months. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean was less than 1°C above average (NINO3.4).
Most of the models predict the end of El Niño and a brief period of ENSO-neutral by early Northern Hemisphere summer with >50% chance of La Niña conditions by June-July-August increasing to 75% for September-October-November.
Regional Overview on Seasonal Forecasts for June - August 2016
Rainfall Outlook
Above to normal rainfall totals are forecast for Dominica for June-July-August 2016.
Probability:
- 40% chance of above normal
- 35% chance normal
- 25% chance of below normal
Wet Days and Wet Spells Outlook
Station | Climatology (Wet days) | Forecast (Wet days) |
---|---|---|
Canefield Airport | 49 to 67 | 46 to 64 |
Douglas-Charles | 53 to 70 | 52 to 67 |
Forecast: Fewer wet days than normal (low to medium confidence).
Implication: Increasing surface wetness as we move from the dry to the wet season and disruptions of outdoor activities (however perhaps less often than usual).
Station | Climatology (7 day wet spell) | Forecast (7 day wet spell) |
---|---|---|
Canefield Airport | 3.9 to 7 | 2.2 to 5.6 |
Douglas-Charles | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.5 to 4.7 |
Forecast: Fewer 7 day wet spells than normal (medium confidence).
Station | Climatology (3 day extreme wet spell) | Forecast (3 day extreme wet spell) |
---|---|---|
Canefield Airport | 0 to 1.3 | 0 |
Douglas-Charles | 0 to 1.5 | 0 |
Forecast: There is an increased chance of 3-day extreme wet spells (medium to high confidence).
Implication: Flash flood potential developing.
Drought Outlook
There are no drought concerns for Dominica up to August 2016.
Temperature Outlook
Air temperatures are expected to be above to normal. Night and day-time temperatures are expected to be warmer.
Minimum/ night-time temperature Probability
- 45% chance of above normal
- 35% chance normal
- 20% chance of below normal
Maximum/ day-time temperature Probability
- 50% chance of above normal
- 30% chance normal
- 20% chance of below normal