Seasonal Forecast: November 2022 to January 2023

Date of Issue: November 9th, 2022

What are the usual NDJ conditions?

Rainfall Canefield Airport Douglas-Charles Airport
Normal Accumulation 255.8 to 528.3mm 493.9 to 746.8mm
Number of Wet Days 41 to 54 days 56 to 68 days
Number of 7-day Wet Spells 2 to 4 2 to 5
Number of 7-day Dry Spells - 0 to 1
Average Maximum 30.5°C to 30.9°C 29.1°C to 29.4°C
Average Mean 26.3°C to 26.6°C 25.9°C to 26.2°C
Average Minimum 22.1°C to 22.5°C 23.2°C to 23.5°C

What is the forecast for this NDJ season?

  • Rainfall:
    • There is medium confidence that rainfall accumulation is likely to remain at least as high as usual, as the wet season officially winds down and the island transitions into the dry season
    • Hurricane season activity may remain elevated throughout November particularly in the Caribbean Sea
    • There may be no significant shift (an increase or decrease) from the usual number of wet days however, there is likely to be a slight increase in the number of 7-day wet spells, which will increase flood potential across the island
    • There may be a slight increase in the number of 3-day extreme wet spells, which maintains a moderate chance of flash floods and associated hazards up to January
    • The first half of the dry season, January to March, may potentially be wetter than usual
    • At this time, there is no concern for drought conditions
  • Temperature:
    • Temperatures are expected to be generally comfortable as the Caribbean enters its cool season
    • Daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be close to usual
    • Heat stress is not expected to be a regular concern

Note: The level of forecast accuracy and certainty decreases as the time increases. This is inherent to all model projections. Therefore, there is less confidence after 48 hours. Model projections may change significantly daily.

What factors are influencing this forecast?

  • El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
    • Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below normal (-1.0°C); La Niña conditions persists
    • Model forecast and guidance: Models forecast indicate that La Niña may persist through January (95% confidence) and possibly shifting to ENSO neutral conditions thereafter (55-60% confidence)
    • Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity during the dry season. ENSO neutral offers little predictability in seasonal forecasting
  • Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea
    • Recent observations: SSTs are more than 0.5-1 °C above average in much of the Caribbean Sea, the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and sub-tropical North Atlantic
    • Expected conditions: Models are forecasting SST to remain between 0-0.5°C above average, across the Caribbean and in the sub-tropical North Atlantic
    • Expected impacts: Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall