Date of Issue: October 7th, 2022

Forecast:

• Rainfall
  • There is medium to high confidence that rainfall accumulation is likely to remain as high as or possibly even higher than usual, as the wet season winds down and the island transitions into the dry season
  • Hurricane season activity may remain elevated into November
  • A slight increase in the number of wet days and 7-day wet spells is likely, which will increase flood potential across the island
  • There is stronger indication of an increase in 3-day extreme wet spells, which maintains a moderate to high chance of flash floods and associated hazards towards November
  • The first half of the dry season, January to March, may potentially be wetter than usual
  • At this time, there is no concern for drought conditions
• Temperature
  • A general cooling is expected as the region exits its heat season with more comfortable temperatures expected
  • Daytime temperatures are likely to be cooler than usual
  • Night-time temperatures are likely to be as cool as usual
  • Heat stress is likely to decrease throughout October as the chance of heat waves lessens

Influencing Factors

• El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
  • Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below normal (-1.0°C); La Niña conditions persists
  • Model forecast and guidance: Models forecast indicate that La Niña may persist through December (80-90% confidence) and into the dry season (45-55% confidence)
  • Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity during the wet season and the transition into the dry season. La Niña also increases the chance of tropical cyclone formation
• Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea
  • Recent observations: SSTs are within 0.5°C around the average in much of the Caribbean Sea and the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), but around 0.5-1°C above average in the sub-tropical North Atlantic
  • Expected conditions: Models are forecasting SST to remain between 0-0.5°C above average, across the Caribbean and in the sub-tropical North Atlantic
  • Expected impacts: Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall

See table below with Climatological Normal/ Averages.