Seasonal Forecast: July to September 2022

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Seasonal Forecast: July to September (JAS) 2022

Date of Issue: July 7, 2022

 

ØForecast:

Rainfall

·         There is some confidence that rainfall accumulation is likely to be as high as usual as we move into the heart of the wet season

·         On average, hurricane season activity increases during this period coming to a peak in September

·         A likely increase in the number of wet days and 7-day wet spells which may increase flood potential across the island

·         A likely increase in 3-day extreme wet spells, which may increase the chance (moderate to high) of flash floods and associated hazards particularly towards September

·         These conditions are likely to persist into the October through December

·         At this time, there is no concern for drought conditions

 

Temperature

·         The region is well into the heat season

·         Day and night-time temperatures are likely to be as warm as usual

·         Heat stress is likely to increase due to higher humidity and lighter winds

 

 

ØInfluencing Factors

1.      El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below normal (-0.6°C); La Niña conditions exist.

 

Model forecast and guidance: The models forecast indicate that La Niña may persist into October-November-December (OND) (60-55% confidence) 

 

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity during the wet season. La Niña also increases the chance of tropical cyclone formation.  

 

2.      Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea

 

Recent observations: Warmer than usual SSTs persisted to 1°C above average around the northern section of the Caribbean Sea and in the sub-tropical portions of the North Atlantic in May. Elsewhere in the Caribbean SSTs were near normal.

Expected conditions: Models are forecasting SST to maintain anomalously warm (0.5-1°C above average) around the Caribbean and in the sub-tropical North Atlantic.

Expected impacts: Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall.

 

 See table below with Climatological Normal/ Averages

 

 

July-August-September

CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL (30YEARS)

RAINFALL

CANEFIELD AIRPORT

DOUGLAS-CHARLES AIRPORT

Normal

559.4 to 805.6mm

651.1 to 874.4mm

Wet Days Normal

52 to 64 days

56 to 69 days

7-day Wet Spells Normal

4 to 7

3 to 7

TEMPERATURE (15YRS AVERAGES)

Average Maximum

32.1°C to 32.5°C

31.0°C to 31.4°C

Average Mean

28.1°C to 28.4°C

27.7°C to 28.1°C

Average Minimum

24.0°C to 24.3°C

24.5°C to 24.7°C