Seasonal Forecast: July to September 2022

Date of Issue: July 7, 2022


  • Rainfall
    • There is some confidence that rainfall accumulation is likely to be as high as usual as we move into the heart of the wet season
    • On average, hurricane season activity increases during this period coming to a peak in September
    • A likely increase in the number of wet days and 7-day wet spells which may increase flood potential across the island
    • A likely increase in 3-day extreme wet spells, which may increase the chance (moderate to high) of flash floods and associated hazards particularly towards September
    • These conditions are likely to persist into the October through December
    • At this time, there is no concern for drought conditions
  • Temperature
    • The region is well into the heat season
    • Day and night-time temperatures are likely to be as warm as usual
    • Heat stress is likely to increase due to higher humidity and lighter winds

Influencing Factors

  • El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
    • Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below normal (-0.6°C); La Niña conditions exist
    • Model forecast and guidance: The models forecast indicate that La Niña may persist into October-November-December (OND) (60-55% confidence)
    • Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity during the wet season. La Niña also increases the chance of tropical cyclone formation
  • Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea
    • Recent observations: Warmer than usual SSTs persisted to 1°C above average around the northern section of the Caribbean Sea and in the sub-tropical portions of the North Atlantic in May. Elsewhere in the Caribbean SSTs were near normal
    • Expected conditions: Models are forecasting SST to maintain anomalously warm (0.5-1°C above average) around the Caribbean and in the sub-tropical North Atlantic
    • Expected impacts: Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall

See table below with Climatological Normal/Averages

July August September
Rainfall Canefield Airport Douglas-Charles Airport
Normal 559.4 to 805.6mm 651.1 to 874.4mm
Wet Days Normal 52 to 64 days 56 to 69 days
7-day Wet Spells Normal 4 to 7 3 to 7
Average Maximum 32.1°C to 32.5°C 31.0°C to 31.4°C
Average Mean 28.1°C to 28.4°C 27.7°C to 28.1°C
Average Minimum 24.0°C to 24.3°C 24.5°C to 24.7°C