Seasonal Forecast: May to July 2022 (MJJ)

Date of Issue: May 3rd 2022


  • Rainfall
    • There is medium confidence that rainfall accumulation into the beginning of the wet season is likely to be below normal. Possible delayed start to the wet season
    • Fewer wet days and wet spells is highly likely which could lead to slow recharge of soil moisture
    • There is little concern for extreme wet spells which could result in flash floods and only one is likely to occur
    • At most, two 7-day dry spells are possible during the season and one 10-day dry spell
    • Concern remains for possible drought-like conditions in parts of the country by the end of July 2022
    • August to October is likely to be as wet as or even wetter than usual
  • Temperature
    • May marks the official start of the Caribbean Heat Season as temperatures become progressively warmer
    • Significant increase in temperatures is not likely across Dominica, this period
    • Night-time minimum temperatures are likely to be as cool as usual
    • Day-time temperatures are likely to be cooler than usual, particularly in eastern regions
    • Bush fire potential is expected to peak in May

Influencing Factors

  • El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
    • Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below normal (-1.0°C); La Niña persists
    • Model forecast and guidance: The models forecast indicate that La Niña conditions in MJJ (70-60% confidence) may persist into ASO (50-45% confidence)
    • Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity during the wet season, though the models suggest the opposite during its start. Some other atmospheric signal may be driving this forecast
  • Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea
    • Recent observations: Warmer than usual SSTs persisted to 1°C above average around the northern section of the Caribbean Sea and in the sub-tropical portions of the North Atlantic in March. Elsewhere in the Caribbean SSTs were near normal
    • Expected conditions: Models are forecasting SST to maintain anomalously warm (0.5-1°C above average) around the Caribbean and in the sub-tropical North Atlantic
    • Expected impacts: Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall

See table below with Climatological Normal/Averages:

Normal 333.6 to 593.2mm 349.9 to 636.1mm
Wet Days Normal 29 to 45 days 41 to 64 days
7-Day Dry Spells Normal n/a 0 to 3
Average Maximum 31.8°C to 32.4°C 29.8°C to 30.2°C
Average Mean 27.9°C to 28.5°C 26.7°C to 27.2°C
Average Minimum 24.0°C to 24.5°C 23.7°C to 24.1°C

Posted: 03/05/2022