Seasonal Forecast: February 2022 to April 2022


Seasonal Forecast: February 2022 to April 2022 (FMA)

Date of Issue: February 9th 2022





With a persistent La Nina, rainfall total is likely to be as wet or even wetter than usual for the period FMA. A slight increase in the frequency of wet days and wet spells from the normal is expected but, extreme wet spells which could result in flash floods are not anticipated. At most, three 7-day dry spells are possible during the season and one 10-day dry spell. Thereafter, for the May to July period, rainfall accumulation is expected to be less than usual, though there is low confidence in this forecast at this time.

Concern remains for possible drought-like conditions in parts of the country by the end of May 2022.



Night-time minimum and daytime maximum temperatures will gradually warm into April but will remain comfortably cooler than usual.


ØInfluencing Factors


1.      El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below normal -0.75°C; La Niña conditions have maintained to the end of this year. 

Model forecast and guidance: The models forecast indicate La Niña conditions in FMA (70-75% confidence), which may phase into ENSO neutral into MJJ (60-65% confid.). 

Expected impacts on rainfall: : La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity in FMA and MJJ  except in the northern Caribbean where it tilts the odds to less rainfall. ENSO neutral offers little contribution to seasonal rainfall or temperature prediction in the Caribbean.


 2.      Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea 

Recent observations: warmer than usual SSTs persisted to 1°C above average around most of the Caribbean Sea and in the sub-tropical portions of the North Atlantic in December.

Expected conditions:  Models are forecasting SST to maintain anomalously warm (0.5-1°C above average) around the Caribbean and in the sub-tropical North Atlantic.

Expected impacts: Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall.


  See table below with Climatological Normal/ Averages









119.2 to 193.0mm

240.9 to 388.8mm

Wet Days Normal

28 to 41 days

40 to 58 days

7-Day Dry Spells Normal


0 to 3


Average Maximum

30.3°C to 30.8°C

28.8°C to 29.2°C

Average Mean

26.2°C to 26.5°C

25.4°C to 25.9°C

Average Minimum

21.9°C to 22.0°C

22.2°C to 22.5°C