Seasonal Forecast: January to March 2022

Date of Issue: January 7th, 2022


ØSeasonal Forecast: January 2022 to March 2022 (JFM)


  •         Rainfall totals are forecast to be normal with a slight chance of being above normal for the season.
  •          A drier pattern is likely by March.
  •       An increase in the frequency of wet days from the normal is possible. A gradual reduction in the number of wet spells is possible as the season progresses.
  •          At most up to about three 7-day wet spells are likely. The possibility of experiencing a 3-day extremely wet spell is very low at this time.
  •          At most up to five 7-day dry spells are likely (60% confidence) for the season. There is a 50% chance of having at most one 15-day dry spell.                 
  •     A significant reduction in rainfall events is likely by April and this may result in drought-like conditions through May and into the wet season, which begins officially in June. Preparation needs to be made to mitigate against loss due to dry conditions, especially along the north to western regions where rainfall deficit is always greater. Brushfire chances are likely to increase during that period


The island is now in its cool season when temperatures are generally cooler. Normally temperatures begin to increase by March especially during dry conditions. 

  •         Daytime maximum temperatures are likely to be as normal, with a slight chance of being cooler than usual.
  •         Temperatures during the night are likely to be above normal to normal.
  •          Overall, temperatures are likely to be at least as warm as usual.


ØInfluencing Factors

1.      El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Recent observations: La Niña, the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern remains in place.  Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific have recently dropped below -1.0°C.


Model forecast and guidance: The models forecast indicate La Niña conditions throughout January to March (80-90% confidence) and a change into ENSO neutral by April to June (55-60% confidence).


Expected impacts on rainfall: La Niña tilts the odds to more rainfall activity in January to March across the lesser Antilles. ENSO neutral offers little contribution to seasonal rainfall or temperature prediction in the Caribbean.



2.     Climate conditions in the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean Sea


Recent observations: SSTs have warmed to 1°C above average around most of the Caribbean Sea and in the sub-tropical portions of the North Atlantic.

Expected conditions:  Models are expecting SSTs to maintain anomalously warm (0.5-1°C above average) temperatures across the Caribbean Sea and in the sub-tropical North Atlantic.

Expected impacts: Warm SSTs in and around the Caribbean tend to contribute to higher air temperatures with above-average humidity, seasonal rainfall totals and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall.


See table below with Climatological Normal/ Averages