Updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: August 11

Forecasters now expect 70 percent chance of 12 - 17 named storms.

August 11, 2016.
In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) calls for a higher likelihood of a near normal or above normal season and decreases the chance of a below normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012.

Forecasters now expect a 70 - percent chance of 12 - 17 named storms, of which 5 - 8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2 - 4 major hurricanes. The initial outlook called for 10 - 16 named storms, 4 - 8 hurricanes, and 1 - 4 major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Forecasters predict more storms this hurricane season
Forecasters predict more storms this hurricane season

In its 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update, NOAA's National Weather Service indicates there is a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms. (NOAA)

NOAA has raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic and also a stronger west African monsoon. However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.

Given these competing conditions, La Niña, if it develops, will most likely be weak and have little impact on the hurricane season. NOAA announced that La Niña is slightly favored to develop during the hurricane season.

Storm names for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season
Storm names for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season

As of August 11th, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). Four made landfall: Bonnie (in South Carolina), Colin (in western Florida), Danielle (in eastern Mexico), and Earl (in Belize and Mexico).

As we move into the peak of hurricane season, when hurricanes are most frequent and often at their strongest, the Dominica Meteorological Service urges residents in Dominica to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place and to monitor the latest forecasts as we continue to provide up to date weather information via the various mediums.

Posted: 17/08/2016